The latest monthly “Loan Performance Insights Report”, published by the information and analytical authority CoreLogic, found that 1 in every 20 Americans who have mortgages, including foreclosures, have been delinquent by 30 days as of this February. The data might look like a negative outlook, but it actually represents 0.5% improvement. In other words the analysts observe a slight decline in the overall delinquency rate compared to the same period of 2016. The figure was 5.5% in February 2016.
This February the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process (foreclosure inventory rate) has been at 0.8% compared with 1.1% at the same period of 2016. The share of delinquent mortgages for 90 days or more past due including loans in foreclosure, was 2.2% in February 2017, down from 2.8% in February 2016.
CoreLogic has also revealed that the the 30 – 59 days past due delinquencies (early-stage) have been trending slightly higher in February 2017 at 2.14% compared with 2.08% in February 2016. The share of mortgages that have been in 60 – 89 days past due in February 2017 was 0.7%, as they were at the same period of 2016.
The analysis of the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1% in February 2017, up from 0.8% in February 2016. Ten years ago, just before the start of the financial crisis January 2007, the current to 30-day transition rate was 1.2%. It peaked in November 2008 at 2%.
According to Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic “Serious delinquency and foreclosure rates continue to drift lower, and are at their lowest levels since the fourth quarter of 2007. Moreover, the past-due share dropped to 5%, the lowest since September 2007. However, current-to-30-day past-due transition rates ticked up in February, and 30-day-to-60 day delinquency rates held mostly steady, recording only a 0.06% increase”.
CoreLogic’s CEO Frank Martell explained that despite that national-level delinquency rates declined, the serious delinquency rate remained elevated in many mid-Atlantic and northeast states led by New York and New Jersey. “February-to-February increases in both 30-day-or-more delinquency rates and in serious delinquency rates were also observed in Alaska, Louisiana and Wyoming relating to the impact of the downturn in the global oil market“, said Mr. Martell.